"Cement and glass plates have bright spots." In response to the measures for the implementation of capacity replacement in the cement glass industry (hereinafter referred to as the measures) recently issued by the Ministry of industry and information technology, Li Yang reminded the glass industry to focus on three changes. First, the new photovoltaic calendered glass project does not need to formulate a capacity replacement scheme, but it is necessary to establish a capacity risk early warning mechanism and require a hearing, After the project is completed and put into operation, the enterprise will fulfill its commitment not to produce building glass, and the specific documents will be issued separately; Second, there is no need to formulate capacity replacement scheme for automobile production capacity; Third, the replacement proportion of flat glass remains unchanged.

It is understood that there is a mismatch between the current demand and supply of photovoltaic calendered glass. The price of photovoltaic glass fluctuated. In the second half of 2020, the coating price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass rose from 28 yuan per square meter to nearly 50 yuan. However, in the first half of this year, the module cost was too high and the willingness to start construction decreased, resulting in a decline in the demand for photovoltaic glass, and the price fell to 22 yuan to 23 yuan per square meter“ The photovoltaic industry is in line with the development trend of carbon neutralization and carbon peak, and is a firm future energy development direction. " Li Yang said that photovoltaic glass is one of the indispensable components of photovoltaic modules, and the demand in the future is considerable“ We expect the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass to increase by 30% year-on-year from 2021 to 2022. "

Nowadays, the measures stipulates that the photovoltaic calendered glass can not be used for capacity replacement, which is very beneficial to the development of the photovoltaic industry“ The new policy liberalizes the limited capacity of photovoltaic calendered glass. We believe that, on the one hand, we recognize the future development trend, there may be a gap in photovoltaic glass, and on the other hand, it is also to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand at the material end, maintain a normal and reasonable profit level from the source, and avoid pressure on the back-end chain of photovoltaic industry due to the cost end, so as to ensure the sustainable development of the industry. "

"The current supply-demand relationship of flat glass is tight, and the price has reached new highs in recent 10 years." In terms of demand, the downstream use of glass is increasing, and the large-scale promotion of two or three glasses, such as shed reform and old reform, not only releases the demand for glass with the real estate cycle, but also increases the actual unit consumption; In terms of supply, due to replacement restrictions and environmental protection control, the industry supply has maintained a "shrinking" state in recent two years and is relatively stable“ The problem caused by the imbalance between supply and demand is price fluctuation. The introduction of the policy did not continue to tighten the replacement ratio like that of cement. We believe that it is a performance of following the market law and will not artificially aggravate the tension. At the same time, it will not be liberalized at will, so as to continue to consolidate the effectiveness of supply side reform. Therefore, the supply-demand relationship of flat glass is expected to be in a dynamic balance in the future, and the cyclical fluctuation of price is expected to slow down. "

For better development of the glass industry in the future, Li Yang said that we should focus on the popularization of energy-saving glass and product structural upgrading“ Firstly, according to statistics, the energy consumption related to glass doors and windows is expected to account for 50% of all kinds of building energy consumption. With the penetration of residents' living habits to ventilation and light transmission, the glass specification will develop in a larger and wider direction in the future. The importance of energy-saving glass is becoming more and more prominent. It is no longer limited to the climate difference between North and south, but is moving towards building standard accessories. Glass can be extended to automobile, electronics, medicine, aerospace, photovoltaic and other fields. In the past two years, the domestic substitution trend of electronic glass and medicinal glass is obvious. High quality enterprises in the industry are committed to the upgrading of high-end glass manufacturing. "（ Li Yang is a senior analyst in the building materials industry of Industrial Securities)